Network for Biological Invasions and Dispersal Research

MITACS Seminar at the University of Western Ontario

Tuesday 17 Nov 2009,

Yuan Lou

of the Ohio State University

will speak on

The Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

2:30 PM, Middlesex College Room 204, University of Western Ontario

Abstract: How do spatial heterogeneity, habitat connectivity, and different movement rates among subpopulations combine to influence the observed spatial patterns of an infectious disease? We will formulate and analyze a continuous-time SIS patch model. Patch differences in local disease transmission and recovery rates characterize whether patches are low-risk or high-risk, and these differences collectively determine whether the spatial domain, or habitat, is low-risk or high-risk. In low-risk habitats, the disease persists only when the mobility of infected individuals lies below some threshold value, but for high-risk habitats, the disease always persists. When the disease does persist, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium (EE). This EE tends to a spatially inhomogeneous disease-free equilibrium as the mobility of susceptible individuals tends to zero. I will also discuss our recent works on related discrete-time SIS patch model and PDE SIS models.